Philippine envoy says South China Sea is the ‘real flashpoint’ in Asia, not Taiwan

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The ‘aggression’ the Philippines faces from China in the disputed sea is unprecedented, says the country’s ambassador to the US, Jose Manuel Romualdez

While there is a US-Philippine mutual defence treaty, invoking the pact will mean ‘all hell breaks loose’ in the region

The Philippines’ top envoy in the United States has said the South China Sea, not Taiwan, is the “real flashpoint” for an armed conflict in the region, warning “all hell would break loose” if Washington decides to invoke a mutual security treaty to defend Manila in the disputed waterway.

Ambassador Jose Manuel Romualdez said the threat of growing maritime tension between his country and China turning into a military campaign was more alarming than the prospect of Beijing invading the island.

“The real problem and the real flashpoint, which is why I’m telling you how critical it is for us. The real flashpoint is in the West Philippine Sea,” Romualdez said.

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A China Coast Guard vessel manoeuvres near Philippine Coast Guard vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua in the South China Sea. Photo: Reuters

The West Philippine Sea is the term Manila uses to describe the eastern parts of the South China Sea that are within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and territorial waters.

The diplomat also said Chinese President Xi Jinping was “not going to make a move unless he is absolutely sure that he can militarily take over Taiwan”.

Beijing sees Taiwan a breakaway province to be eventually reunited, by force if necessary. While many nations, including the US, do not officially acknowledge Taiwan as an independent state, they oppose any use of force to alter the existing status quo.

The Philippines has in the past accused the Chinese coastguard of confronting its ships in the hotly-contested sea, including firing water cannons at them.

A Chinese Coast Guard ship, left, uses its water cannons on a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources vessel near the Scarborough Shoal in the disputed South China Sea on December 9, 2023. Photo: Philippine Coast Guard via AP

In the latest incident, a vessel belonging to the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources received a radio challenge from a Chinese warship on February 21 as it sailed towards the Beijing-controlled Scarborough Shoal.

The disputed shoal lies 240km (150 miles) west of the Philippines’ main island of Luzon and nearly 900km from the nearest major Chinese land mass of Hainan.

“The aggression that we are now facing is very real,” Romualdez said. “Never in our lifetime, even during World War II, did we face such a challenge because this country will not let up on their claim in many of our territorial waters.”

The diplomat added the frequent stand-offs in the South China Sea could trigger the 1951 mutual defence treaty, which obliges Washington to come to Manila’s defence in case of an armed attack, but its implementation comes at a cost.

“All of these skirmishes that are happening, there can be one major accident and either one of our countries, the US or the Philippines, can invoke the [treaty] and when we do, a commitment made by the US or the commitment we made will happen, and then all hell breaks loose,” Romualdez said.

He also pushed for diplomacy to douse tension between the Philippines and China, saying the Southeast Asian nation was working on preventing a situation where the allies could be forced to use the military pact.

“We hope it will never happen,” GMA News quoted him as saying.

Beijing claims sovereignty over almost the entirety of the South China Sea – where the Philippines and several other Southeast Asian nations have competing claims – and has rejected a 2016 international ruling that ruled in favour of Manila and found China’s assertions have no legal basis.